Outstanding breakdown on the thermal bottleneck for orbital datacenters. The Stefan-Boltzmann constraint is something most hype pieces conveniently skip over, but radiative cooling at scale isn't just expensive, its geometry alone makes these systems impractical. I've seen similar overconfidence in edge deployments where power density assumtions fall apart once you account for real-world cooling limits. The camera-only robotaxi approach feels like anothr case of optimizing for demo conditions rather than operational robustness.
Great article. The focus on physical infrastructure is crucial. While software is often quickly replicable (the 'race to the bottom'), hardware development for humanoids or space infrastructure presents a massive barrier to entry. This is where the wheat will be separated from the chaff, as these products are far more complex both physically and technologically. It will be fascinating to see who masters the scaling process. Which hardware verticals do you consider to be the most critical over the next 2-3 years?
I approached it from a slightly different angle, with similar conclusions.
https://nvariant.substack.com/p/is-space-based-ai-hosting-a-scam
All roads lead to the same conclusion- great write up and really enjoyed reading it!
Outstanding breakdown on the thermal bottleneck for orbital datacenters. The Stefan-Boltzmann constraint is something most hype pieces conveniently skip over, but radiative cooling at scale isn't just expensive, its geometry alone makes these systems impractical. I've seen similar overconfidence in edge deployments where power density assumtions fall apart once you account for real-world cooling limits. The camera-only robotaxi approach feels like anothr case of optimizing for demo conditions rather than operational robustness.
Exactly! A vision has to be built on a base but what exactly is the base here? Thank you so much for taking the time and reading it!
Great article. The focus on physical infrastructure is crucial. While software is often quickly replicable (the 'race to the bottom'), hardware development for humanoids or space infrastructure presents a massive barrier to entry. This is where the wheat will be separated from the chaff, as these products are far more complex both physically and technologically. It will be fascinating to see who masters the scaling process. Which hardware verticals do you consider to be the most critical over the next 2-3 years?
Definitely AV’s since waymo is expanding rapidly while robotaxis stall due to their faulty nature. Thanks for reading!
Great report! I like the new flow and style.
Thank you so much!!